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The New U.S. Tariffs – Weird Formulas, Risks, & The
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The New U.S. Tariffs – Weird Formulas, Risks, & The Coming Trade War
#U.S #Tariffs #Weird #Formulas #Risks
“Perun”
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For decades the U.S. has been a leading force in building the global free trade system. Today, we discuss it’s effort…
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If nothing else, 2025 has not lacked for major geopolitical events and this week has been no exception. I had video materials prepared for a major shift in trade policy – but I didn't expect it to look anything like what we saw.
Tariffs being placed on our Penguin populated islands wasn't on my bingo card for the year either though, and yet here we are. In these episodes, I always try to take the world as it is, so what I've tried to do is set out what has been announced, and some of the sources of leverage different actors might draw on to shape events going forward.
I hope you get something out of this episode, noting how recent the developments are, and how much uncertainty is out there. Remember that in the study of economics you'll find many philosophies and approaches, and mine is neither the only one nor the objectively correct one – but personally, I'm not sure how many would recommend making a weird trade balance formula that looks like something AI might generate the basis by which you try and reshape the global trade system.
Thanks as always for your engagement and support, and I hope to see you all again next week.
I really hope that some of these Silicon Valley services are being sanctioned in the EU moving forward. Especially those that threaten our liberty and citizen's rights, like Palantir.
This is the type of thing a Mafia Don might do……
Fantastically interesting and helpful
How many decades has the US guaranteed the freedoms of all these countries? The UN and NATO has relied on the US firepower to keep them safe, yet doesn't do their fair share in defending their own lands. Trump recognizes that these countries continue to take advantage of the US good will.
Civil War here in the US of A. Our Judiciary Branch Judges are using delaying tactics, allowing frivolous warrants. Who's been running the Country for the last 4 years? He's handling all that as well.
Maybe, Trump is using tariffs to keep you busy, while suddenly everyone finds themselves at peace? Then he can work with China.
I'd be curious to hear your insights on an eventual followup video, perhaps addressing the perception by the rest of the western world how the world order has changed and how everyone, while not "enemies" with the US, is now moving away from them and closer to each other. Especially Canada, originally perceived as being entirely "at the mercy" of USA, and is now signing trade deals left and right and securing foreign investments inside its borders by the hundreds of billions.
Personally I have always felt that these were merely threats and not reality. And while having foreign companies set up manufacturing here to employ Americans would be welcome, the real aim of these tariffs is to threaten American manufacturers to try to bring back their factories – after all its not like foreign countries pay the tariffs, its the importing American company that does. Personally I think it would work better if he were to redo the corporate tax system to base it on how many Americans a company employs, but that would never get through the Republican controlled Congress since while MAGA may have some serious repreentation there, the vast majority of Republican Senators and Congressmen are more traditional Republicans that favor the wealthy owners of those American companies that do the importing. There is one aspect to this that I think Perun has not mentioned is that its not just the size of the US market, its the quality. I remember reading over a decade ago that while Germany's ecports to the US only accounted for 10% of the value of its export market, it accounted for 40% of its profits. So Americans are willing to pay far more tor the same product. And from what I can see of the current German economy and all the new television ads for German products I have seen over the past decade, I think that 10% has grown.
Also, much of the $230 billion trade imbalance with the EU is because of Big Pharma who exports to the US through Ireland due to Ireland's low corporate tax rate compared to other EU nations and the fact that they use transfer pricing to artificially lower the value of the component products that Ireland imports for the final "assembly", they exaggerate the profits attributed to the Irish portion of their supply chain. And American Big Pharma does the exact same thing.
good thing I played metal gear solid 2, I'm all caught up on my homework
Anyone thinking that applying pressure to the US is making a hefty mistake. Trump does not come across as the type of person to challenge in that manor. I would speculate that the tariffs were meant to do exactly what they've done. They put everyone on notice that America is the top dog and is going to behave as such. Anyone thinking he's bluffing will likely find out that he is very much willing to go to the mat to prove who's who. Whatever entity taking an adversarial stance better be ready to fight and possibly die on that hill. The EU specifically has a tremendous amount to lose, and I believe that Trump would be happy to make an example of them. His detractors are a non factor in this. The democrats have lost the people and can't do much more than throw tantrums. They'll be crippled for at least a decade, so the US interior is covered. Couple that with Trump being very willing to take on pretty much exterior fight, and I don't see a positive outcome for anyone who isn't deathly serious about challenging the US, and not much better one's for those who are serious.
No. There is a lot of time pressure, the gross offer must come before the details. The complexity can be coped with over the ten years that follow the reset.
Over already , looks like Trumps won
This video did not age well. American stock market way up. Inflation dropping. And diversifying production away from China. This is why I said be patient. Rushed and emotional videos like this never work out well.
(I'm not American).
Finally getting caught up. Watching this on 5/14/25. I was completely against this type of diplomacy but it seems to have worked for now. We will see where we get with the 90 day pause.
Can you imagine this guy being your friend? You lost every battle at "ye but".
I love watching my counteymen repeatedly vote against our own prosperity. The US citizenry is so brainwashed by oligarchy that it's hard to comprehend let alone believe.
The only logical reason to even think about implementing tariffs the way Trump has, is if your goal is to speedrun the century of U.S global hegemony into the ground.
Which points even more towards Trump & his crownies being Putin-assets. Literally everything he's done since he got into office again has been to sabotage everything that the U.S had going for it. He has made the U.S abandon its allies and started trade wars against them, outright killed U.S reputation and diplomatic ties, threatened to invade Canada and Greenland (both Nato allies), Trump is dismantling whats left of the flawed democracy, he has butchered the federal agencies, leaked war plans, ridiculous he U.S by letting Musk use him for a Tesla car showing – at the fkn White House, Trump is acting like Putins envoy when it comes to Ukraine & "peace deals", the cyber security defences against Russia has been shut down, he's installed an extreme anti-vaxxer to decide over U.S health & disease control (resulting in measles outbreaks at scale not seen in modern time), USAID got gutted which means hundreds of thousands of people, children who were provided with meds/treatment against HIV, Malaria and more – are not anymore which is predicted to cause millions of deaths and record high spread of said diseases. Trumps cabinette is made out of several people that are known to be pro-Putin, and some that literaly got paid by Russia to spread their propaganda & narrative concerning the invasion of Ukraine (Tim Pool). Marco Rubio just recently spoke out in defense of the german neo-nazi party AfD and calling them centrist. Said party is pro-Putin and have taken money from Kreml, with lots of visits. AfD is just super obviously a proxy-party for the Putin-regime.
Also, add how much help, funds the neo-nazi billionaire Musk poured into Trumps campaign, who is known for- and openly- aligned with Putin, who got rewarded by literally acting as a shadow president. He's also trying to defend/help/boost AfD and other far rightwing, pro-Putin parties all over Europe. This is the guy who's team gutted U.S cyber security, left it open for foreign powers to easily hack into – which is exactly what happened minutes after that, by location tracked to being from Russia.
There's so much more stuff to list that i can't finish it in one day. You all get the point.
……but at the end of all the points raised, America can not continue as it was.
15:10 – The reason why ChatGPT gave all those negatives is because it was panicking:
"Oh no! Not again…".
Fantastic!
Basically we elected a bunch of mentally incompetent man children, who are completely and utterly ignorant of history and the trends and forces at hand .
The last time we played around with Tarif walls like this, we extended the great depression by damn near a decade.
Hey Perun. At 34 minutes you mention that the world is different from the 1950s today, and one of the differences is that China is now a major economic and military power. Are you implying they weren't a major power in WWII and that they did not deserve to have been considered as one of the Four Powers?
Thank you for your hard work. You make it seem easy, but I’m sure it’s not all Genius